Centre For Environment, Technology And Development Malaysia


Climate Outlook
 
   
   

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Global Climate System

Source: Climate Change 2001:The Scientific Basis, WHO & UNEP, 2001

 

CO2 Emissions Among ASEAN Countries

 

 

Climate Scenarios in Malaysia

Climate Scenarios for Malaysia based on Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC

Year
2025
2050
2100
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
405 - 460 ppm
445 - 460 ppm
540 - 970 ppm
Mean Temperature Rise
0.2 - 0.4 °C
0.3 - 1.0 °C
0.6 - 2.3 °C
Mean Precipitation Change
- 5 % to + 5 %
- 5 % to + 5 %
- 5 % to + 5 %
Mean Sea-Level Rise
3 - 14 cm
5 - 32 cm
9 - 88 cm

(Source: Chan K.W., 2002; IPCC, 2001)

 

Socio-Economic Impacts In Malaysia

Projected Socio-Economic Impacts resulting from Sea Level Rise

Type of Impact Socio-economic Impacts based on the High Rate of Sea Level Rise (0.9cm/yr)
Loss of agricultural production from eroded/inundated lands RM 46 million for Western Johor Agricultural Development Project area. The West Johor Project area accounts for about 25% of the national drainage areas
Displacement and relocation of flood victims with associated disruption of business / economic activities resulting from increased flooding Long-term annual flood damage estimated at about RM88 million for Peninsular Malaysia and RM12 million for Sabah / Sarawak based on 1980 price level. If the flood frequency is doubled, the annual flood damage will increase by 1.67 times
Loss of fisheries production due to mangrove loss RM300 million loss based on 20% loss of mangrove resulting in a loss of about 70,000 tonnes of prawn production valued at RM4,500 / tonne
Interruption of port operation May see some improvement due to reduced siltation

(Source: Malaysia Initial National Communication, 2000)

 

Projected Climate Change Impacts in Malaysia

Summary Possible Effects of Climate Change on Public Health

Climate Change scenario

Temperature change +0.6 to 3.4°C in 60 years

Rainfall -1 to +32% in 60 years

Sea Level 13 - 94 cm in 100 years

Health concerns Region-specific scenarios are not available. Predictions have to be general and speculative
Vector-borne diseases - tropics, sub-tropics to temperature zones

Dengue - Increase in urban areas. High rainfall required for high transmission

Malaria - Specific temperature & rainfall requires for vector breeding. Increase in sea level & deforestration without proper and sound land use may lead to increased vector breeding ground

Transmission Areas

Seasonal areas - Increase in desease due to loss of immunity

Perennial areas - Increase due to improved vector breeding conditions

Viral Diseases - Increase with increases in humidity & temperature. Can change from endemic to epidemic farms. E.g. Japanese encephalitis

Water-borne diseases - tropics and sub-tropics

Little can be said about th edirect effect of climate change on these pathogens

Bacterial - Escherichia coli, Vibro cholera, Salmonella sp

Viral - Hepatitis A, Poliomyelitis

Protozoa - Giardia sp. Amoeba sp.

Airborne diseases Increase in particulate (PM10) concentrations, high temperatures and humidity cause / aggravate conjunctivitis, bronchitis & asthma

(Source: Malaysia Initial National Communication, 2000)

 

Emissions & Removal of GHGs for Each Sectors in Malaysia

Summary of National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removal in 1994

Sectors
CO2 Equivalent (Gg)
Energy

CO2

CH4

N2O

84,415

13,335

102

Sub total
97,852
Industrial Processes CO2
4,973
Sub total
4,973
Agriculture

CH4

N2O

6,909

16

Sub total
6,925
Land Use Change and Forestry

CO2(Emission)

CO2(Sink)

CH4

N2O

7,636

-68,717

3

0.3

Sub total
7,639
Waste

CO2

CH4

318

26,607

Sub total
26,925

Total (emissions only)

Net total (after subtracting sink)

144,314

75,597

(Source: Malaysia Initial National Communication, 2000)

 




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